← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 2/26/2026
Water FractalTier 2
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 2/26/2026
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 13.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sablemere, Warden's Grip | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |